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Initially, it is unlikely to be triggered, but it is constantly moved closer and closer to where the market is at any point in the trade As the trade matures, despite the fact that it is not going anywhere, it may be possible to exit with a small profit when the profit target comes into a region where the market has enough volatility to hit it, resulting in an exit at a good price and without slippage Time-Based Exits Time-based exits involve getting out of the market on a market order after having held a trade for a fixed period of time The assumption is that if the market has not, in the specified period of time, moved sufficiently to trigger a profit target or some other kind of exit, then the trade is probably dead and just tying up margin Since.

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Isuzu makes midsized commercial trucks that sell for about $33,000 each. Recently, the truck marketplace was moving very slowly. Furthermore, at that time, Isuzu had no new truck models to offer with which it could beat the competition. As a result, Isuzu had to rely on better marketing and improved ability to target prospects and customers. At the time, Isuzu s marketing budget had been cut back. On the bright side, however, American Isuzu Commercial Vehicles had just completed two major database projects using an updated customer database created by msdbm in Los Angeles. The rst project was to pro le customers, and the second was to model customer purchase behavior. Based on these models, a numerical scoring methodology was developed to indicate purchase behavior. Scores were then grouped into three ranges indicating a high, medium, or low likelihood of purchase. If the methodology was accurate, then customers who received a high score would be more likely to purchase in the near term than customers who received a low score. It was also felt that the company was more likely to be successful at selling a new vehicle to a current customer than at trying to convert a prospect. Msdbm developed a scoring methodology to predict the behavior of Isuzu Commercial Truck owners. The model predicted the propensity to purchase based on four variables: 1. 2. 3. 4. Number of people employed by the business Vocation e.g., landscaping, electrical contractor, towing, etc. Time since last purchase Total number of trucks owned

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the reason for having entered the trade in the first place may no longer be relevant, the trade should be closed out and the next opportunity pursued.

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A volatility exit depends on recognizing that the level of risk is increasing due to rapidly rising market volatility, actual or potential. Under such circumstances, it is prudent to close out positions and, in so doing, limit exposure. For instance, when volatility suddenly expands on high volume after a sustained trend, a blow-off top might be developing. Why not sell off long positions into the buying frenzy Not only may a sudden retracement be avoided, but the fills are likely to be very good, with slippage working with, rather than against, the trader! Another volatility exit point could be a date that suggests a high degree of risk, e.g., anniversaries of major market crashes: If long positions are exited and the market trends up instead, it is still possible to jump back in. However, if a deep downturn does occur, the long position can be reentered at a much better price! What else constitutes a point of increased risk If an indicator suggests that a trend is about to reverse, it may be wise to exit and avoid the potential reversal. If a breakout system causes a long entry into the S&P 500 to occur several days before the full moon, but lunar studies have shown that the market often drops when the moon is full and the trade is still being held, then it might be a good idea to close the position, thus avoiding potential volatility. Also remember, positions need not be exited all at once. Just a proportion of a multicontract position can be closed out, a strategy that is likely to help smooth out a trader s equity curve.

Using the model scores, the customers were divided into three groups based on the likelihood of their purchasing a new truck: 1. High probability 2. Medium probability 3. Low probability

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A barrier exit is taken when the market touches or penetrates some barrier, such as a point of support or resistance, a trendline, or a Fibonacci retracement level. Barrier exits are the best exits: They represent theoretical barriers beyond which interpretation of market action must be revised, and they often allow very close stops to be set, thereby dramatically reducing losses on trades that go wrong. The trick is to find a good barrier in approximately the right place. For example, a money management stop can serve as a barrier exit when it is placed at a strong support or resistance level, if such a level exists close enough to the entry price to keep potential loss within an acceptable level. The trailing exit also can be a barrier exit if it is based on a trendhne.

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