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In continuation of the endeavor to improve upon the standard exit strategy (SES) and develop a good exit, a number of modifications are explored. In the previous chapter, it was demonstrated that the exit strategy can have a substantial impact on the overall performance of a trading system. To make it more compatible with the kinds of exit strategies examined in this and the next chapter, the original SES (used in the study of entries) was changed and became the modified SES (or MSES): While maintaining consistency, the restriction of exiting at the close was removed. It was no longer necessary to restrict the exit to the close, because in the study of exits, entries are restricted to the open. In previous chapters, entries were not restricted to the open. Therefore, to avoid ambiguity in the simulations, it was necessary to restrict exits to the close. The MSES represents a kind of baseline, minimalist exit that can serve as a standard for comparing better exit methods, as well as provide some consistency and comparability with the unmodified SES. In this chapter, variations, both small and large, of the MSES are explored in an attempt to find a better exit strategy.

identi ed by the models. Of those who were sent the offer, 21 percent played the game identi ed by the certi cate, compared to 1 percent of the control group (10 percent of the le). Interestingly, the promotional certi cate was available in the store to the control group. Prior to using the model, Golden Casket averaged response rates of 10 to 12 percent. The company now consistently achieves direct-mail response rates of over 30 percent by using combinations of the models. The Golden Casket Web site was upgraded to allow Winners Circle players access to their personal information. Players can check for outstanding prizes, update their details, and opt in and out of various offers such as, Email me every time the Powerball jackpot reaches $5 million. Additionally, when a Winners Circle player visits online, the cross-selling table is used to populate the banner ad and promotional elds.

When specifying the original SES (as well as when modifying it so that inside-thebar stops and limits could be used), specifications for the tightness of the money management stop and closeness of the profit target were arbitrary and fixed. For long entries, the money management stop was placed at 1 average true range unit below the entry price, while the profit target was placed 4 average true range units above the entry price. For short entries, the placements were reversed. The intention was to place a stop fairly close in so that losing trades would quickly be taken

mutation occurs or months later. This example of the induction of cancer in experimental animals, in which tumor initiation is followed sequentially by tumor promotion and progression, is very important not only for the understanding of the development of cancer but also for a rational and effective prevention of cancer. Similar sequential stages are also believed to be involved in human cancer. Estrogens and androgens can act as tumor promoters by stimulating mutated cells to grow and multiply, which can lead to breast or prostate cancer. Further stimulation with low doses of other environmental toxins and carcinogens can cause the number of initiated or mutated cells, called precancerous cells, to expand and progress to true cancer cells, which can then invade surrounding tissues and metastasize.

Every television program, radio program, newspaper, and magazine in Australia is pro led by the Roy Morgan research survey. The survey provides Australian companies that buy mainstream media with the Mosaic geodemographic pro le of customers of each media type and program. Golden Casket used the behavioral models to select target markets by media zone. These target segments are geodemographically pro led against the Roy Morgan survey to create a ranking that gives a best t to worst t portrait to assist Golden Casket in media buying. Using this system, Golden Casket determined that radio station B105 in the 9:00 a.m to noon hours was the best geodemographic match for a Powerball ad. For every 1 percent increase in media-buying effectiveness, Golden Casket was able to save about $100,000. This new approach changed the way Golden Casket bought advertising. The company determined that in regional areas, less expensive off-peak television could be purchased without compromising reach goals for speci c brands.

out, while placing the profit target far enough away so profits would not be cut short on trades that were favorable The first test below examines the performance of the stop and profit target when the arbitrary settings are adjusted The second set of tests involves replacing the fixed money management stop in the MSES with a more dynamic stop The minimalist MSES lacks many desir able characteristics One of the features any good trader wants in an exit is the ability to lock in at least some of the paper profit that develops in the course of a successful trade, ie, to avoid having to watch profitable trades turn into losers.

Golden Casket is now more focused on managing customer relationships. Instead of casting a wide net, customer models have enabled