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Table 15-2 is the standard optimization table. It shows the in-sample portfolio performance for every threshold examined and the out-of-sample results for the threshold that was the best performer during the in-sample period. In-sample, an improvement in overall results was obtained from the use of the additional neural network exit. The average trade responded to the threshold in a consistent manner. A threshold of 54 produced the best results, with an average trade losing $832. There were 41% wins and an annualized risk-to-reward ratio of -0.87. The numbers represent a dramatic improvement over those for the baseline presented in Table 15-l. Out-of-sample, however, no improvement was evident: Performance was not too different from that of the optimal MSES without the neural signal element. In the tests conducted using the neural net for entries, performance deteriorated very significantly when moving from in-sample to out-ofsample data. The same thing appears to have happened in the current test, where the same net was used as an element in an exit strategy.

Direct-mail promotions usually get better response rates than email promotions, but the cost per response may be higher. The Isuzu case showed that models can correctly predict which business customers are most likely to respond and which probably won t. The Scotiabank Applause program shows that internal Web programs can be highly effective in reaching employees and obtaining employee participation, even with a mature group. The KnowledgeBase program showed that long-distance customers will respond productively to an online program, saving the cost of phone response.

Baseline Performance Data for the Modified Standard Exit Strategy to Be Used When Evaluating the Addition of a Neural Forecaster Signal Exit

SAW 1 NETI. 1 NETS 1 PFAC 1 RCA% / ARRR I PRO6 I l-R06 1 WIN% [ AVTR ITRDB IN I -19761 -4073) 0.831 -10.31 -1.461 1.0000~ 38261 391 -15811 6 OUT I -9741 -163zl 0.641 -21.61 -1.451 O.BS651 16491 391 -15501 8

Perhaps the most interesting shift in database marketing has been the fact that the database and a Web microsite can be located on the same server or can be electronically connected so that they seem to be on the

Detoxification is a key bodily process designed to deal with healththreatening toxic conditions posed by our environment, our diets, and even our bodies themselves. There are many chemical processes taking place in the body all the time, and some of these require a detoxification process after completing their work. For example, steroid hormones such as estrogens and androgens perform vital cellular functions within our bodies, but once a particular function has been performed, these chemicals can cause problems such as overstimulating breast and prostate tissues. Consequently they must be detoxified or removed.

standard exit strategy (SES) was used throughout the tests of entry methods. Basically, the SES employs a money management stop, a profit target limit, and a market order for exit after a specified amount of time. The examination of this strategy provides a baseline against which variations and more complex exit strategies (studied in the next two chapters) may be judged. The SES is being investigated using the random entry technique discussed in the Introduction to Part III. WHAT IS THE STANDARD EXIT STRATEGY Although the standard exit strategy is basic and minimal, it does incorporate elements that are essential to any exit strategy: profit taking, risk control, and time exposure restraint. The profit-taking aspect of the SES is done through a profit target limit order that closes out a trade when it has become sufficiently profitable. Tbe risk control aspect of the SES is accomplished using a simple money management stop that serves to close out a losing position with a manageable loss. The time exposure restraint is achieved with a market order, posted after a certain amount of time has elapsed. It closes out a languishing trade that has hit neither the money management stop nor the profit target. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE STANDARD EXIT

same server. What this means is that the database and the microsite are not two separate entities, but part of a single customer response and communication vehicle. Cookies are placed on the customer s computer so that when she comes to our site, she sees a site that is con gured for her, with things that she has requested to see. This is particularly important in business-to-business marketing. For example, Dell began the process by creating Premier Pages for all customers with 400 employees or more. Dell salespeople contact the purchasing of cer at each company and make a volume pricing deal that is hard to refuse: We will create a Premier Page for your company on the Web. If you get your employees who need Dell products to use this page with passwords controlled by you, we will give them special prices that are not available to the general public. In addition, we will send you monthly reports on what your employees are buying and how much you are saving as a result of your volume pricing deal with Dell. Thousands of companies are copying the Dell idea, setting up special Web pages for their best customers. The system builds sales and loyalty. Of course each purchase gets an on-screen thank you and con rmation that can be printed out on the employee s PC. The employee also gets a simultaneous con rming email, plus another email when the product is shipped. She gets a nal email survey a few days later asking if the product has arrived and requesting her opinion of the process. This is powerful database marketing.