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groups, members of the segment who do not receive the promotions that are sent to all the other members of the segment. Then they measure their success by comparing the purchases made by the members of the segment to whom the promotion was sent against the purchases made by the control group. To determine the return on investment,

Tables 13-1, 13-2, and 13-3 present the portfolio performance that resulted from trading random entries with the standard exit strategy. Each of the numbers in the column RAND represents a seed modifier (ranseed) that causes the RNG to generate a different sequence of random entries. NET = the total net profit, in thousands of dollars. NETL = the total net profit for the longs. NETS = the total net profit for the shorts, PFAC = the profit factor. ROA% = the annualized return on account. ARRR = the annualized risk-reward ratio. PROB = the statistical significance or probability, DRAW = the drawdown, in thousands of dollars. TRDS = the number of trades. WIN% = the percentage of wins. AVTR = the average trade, in dollars. TRDB = the average bars per trade, rounded to the nearest integer. VER zz the performance for the random sequence that provided the best in-sample performance when this sequence is continued and then tested on the verification sample. AVG = the average in-sample value of the numbers in rows 1 through 10. STDEV = the standard deviation for the in-sample performance data shown in rows 1 through 10. Test I: SES with Random Entries at the Open. This system did not perform very well in-sample. The average trade, over all 10 randomizations, lost $2,243, with a

they have to take the incremental revenue gained from the segment to which the promotion was sent and subtract it from it the cost of the promotion and the rewards given to the members of that segment. Many times the return on investment is negative. In this chapter, we will begin with the process of creating a segment: coming up with the idea and nding the data to measure whether the segment is performing as you intend. Then we will look at some case studies involving marketing to segments. So, let s begin with getting data about segment members.

13-2

There are two kinds of data: demographic and behavioral. Demographic data include age, income, presence of children, lifestyle, geography, type of housing, and other such things. In the case of business-to-business les, the demographic data are SIC code, number of employees, annual sales, and so on. Behavioral data usually consist of transactions responses, purchases, redemption of certi cates plus preferences and survey responses. In business-to-business marketing, transaction data are usually very easy to acquire, since most businesses have accounts with their suppliers. With consumers, the data are often dif cult to get your hands on, particularly if the product is purchased at retail stores or through dealers. There are two ways to obtain demographic data: You can have them appended to your database records by an outside source such as Experian, or you can get the information directly from the customers by asking them to ll out a survey or a pro le. The pro le method has become so important that a whole chapter, 14, has been devoted to the subject. To market to segments, you need a database that includes transaction history. The dif culty is in capturing the data. Many retail stores try to do this with a proprietary credit card. All large department stores issue cards, which they hope their customers will use. In fact, only the most determined customers use these cards. It is a nuisance to carry around 10 or 12 store cards in addition to your MasterCard, Visa, or

13-3

Amex. The solution to this problem is to get customers to register their bank credit cards with you, so that when the customers use these cards, you will know that they have made a purchase. iDine (see Figure 8-1) has made a successful business out of this idea. Members register their credit cards with iDine. Then, whenever they go to any of the 7500 restaurants in the country that are associated with iDine and pay for their purchases using one of these cards, iDine nds out about it and either gives them a credit on their credit card or gives them airline miles. The customers don t have to say to the restaurant, Be sure to let iDine know that I am eating here! The process is so simple that it is amazing that more retailers have not caught onto the idea.

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