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Round 1 Customers Purchase rate Average purchase Revenue Cost percent Costs Number mailed Mailed cost Mail costs Total costs Pro t Discount rate NPV of pro t Cumulative NPV of pro t Lifetime value 20,000 100% $120 $2,400,000 40% $960,000 500,000 $2.00 $1,000,000 $1,960,000 $440,000 1.00 $440,000 $440,000 $22.00 Round 2 8,000 40% $130 $1,040,000 40% $416,000 20,000 $2.00 $40,000 $456,000 $584,000 1.04 $561,954 $1,001,954 $50.10 Round 3 3,600 45% $140 $504,000 40% $201,600 20,000 $2.00 $40,000 $241,600 $262,400 1.08 $242,963 $1,244,917 $62.25 Round 4 1,800 50% $150 $270,000 40% $108,000 20,000 $2.00 $40,000 $148,000 $122,000 1.12 $108,699 $1,353,616 $67.68

How can a system that has been fit to a data sample by the repeated adjustment of parameters (i.e., an optimized system) be evaluated Traders frequently optimize systems to obtain good results. In this instance, the use of statistics is more important than ever since the results can be analyzed, compensating for the multiplicity of tests being performed as part of the process of optimization. Table 4-2 contains the profit/loss figures and a variety of statistics for the in-sample trades (those

Provides one-click ordering for all customers who complete the pro le, along with personalized emails and Web site opening pages. Sends an email thank you for each order, an email when the order is shipped, and an email asking if the order was satisfactory. Provides personalized emails announcing the arrival of each book, with click here for items that it is assumed the customer is interested in. Uses collaborative ltering to make suggestions on next best product, leading to a cross-selling rate of 40 percent. Offers an advanced search feature that permits customers to nd products faster. Has live shopper support for people who want to have a text chat with a customer service rep while they are on the site, or who want to call on another line to talk to a live agent. The $1,200,000 software, amortized across 3 years, will represent a cost of $200,000 for each group of rst-time buyers acquired ($1,200,000/3 $400,000/2 per year $200,000). The result of these changes can be seen in the Table 12-2. The purchase rate for the second-time buyers has risen from 40 percent to 50 percent. The average order size has increased. The costs have Table 12-2 Improved LTV with Web Site Software

taken on the data sample used to optimize the system). The system was optimized on data from l/1/90 through l/2/95. Most of the statistics in Table 4-2 are identical to those in Table 4-1, which was associated with Example 1. Two additional statistics (that differ from those in the first example) are labeled Optimization Tests Run and Adjusted for Optimization. The first statistic is simply the number of different parameter combinations tried, i.e., the total number of times the system was run on the data, each time using a different set of parameters. Since the lunar system parameter, LI, was stepped from 1 to 20 in increments of 1, 20 tests were performed; consequently, there were 20 t-statistics, one for each test. The number of tests mn is used to make an adjustment to the probability or significance obtained from the best t-statistic

Round 1 Customers Purchase rate Average purchase Revenue Cost percent Costs Number mailed Mailed cost Mail costs Software cost Total costs Pro t Discount rate NPV of pro t Cumulative NPV of pro t Lifetime value 20,000 100% $120 $2,400,000 40% $960,000 500,000 $2.00 $1,000,000 $200,000 $2,160,000 $240,000 1.00 $240,000 $240,000 $12.00 Round 2 10,000 50% $140 $1,400,000 38% $532,000 20,000 $2.00 $40,000 $0 $572,000 $828,000 1.04 $796,743 $1,036,743 $51.84 Round 3 5,500 55% $155 $852,500 37% $315,425 20,000 $2.00 $40,000 $0 $355,425 $497,075 1.08 $460,255 $1,496,998 $74.85 Round 4 3,300 60% $170 $561,000 36% $201,960 20,000 $2.00 $40,000 $0 $241,960 $319,040 1.12 $284,256 $1,781,254 $89.06

Watermelons contain the important carotenoid lycopene, which, by the way, is what gives the red color to watermelon and tomatoes. Watermelon is a good source of the vitamins, minerals, phenolic compounds, and flavonoids we need to be healthy.

TABLE 4-2

Round 1 New LTV $12.00 Old LTV $22.00 Difference ($10.00) Times 80,000 ($800,000) Round 2 $51.84 $50.10 $ 1.74 $139,156 Round 3 $74.85 $62.25 $12.60 $1,008,323 Round 4 $89.06 $67.68 $21.38 $1,710,552

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