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However, if the animal with the mutated but dormant oncogene is exposed for a long period of time to a tumor promoter, cancer will develop It doesn t matter if the tumor promoter is given right after the.

Likelihood of Playing These Games Saturday Wednesday Tuesday Thursday Gold Lotto Gold Lotto Oz Lotto Powerball Jane Smith John Brown Pat Johnson 95.0% 23.0% 65.0% 2.0% 25.0% 31.0% 2.0% 27.0% 3.0% 1.0% 25.0% 1.0%

CONCLUSION The results clearly demonstrate that many of the entry strategies tested in earlier chapters using the SES were no better than random entries Sometimes they were worse The results also indicate that the SES is not a great exit strategy The MSES, which simply lifts the restriction of the exit to the close, performed much better and even managed to pull a small profit out-of-sample on the long side The MSES should still be considered a minimalist exit strategy, but the results support the contention that a really good exit strategy is, more than anything else, the key to successful trading If the findings from this and previous studies are correct, it should be possible to find an exit strategy that can actually extract substantial profits from randomly entered trades, at least in some markets.

brands to Jane would waste marketing dollars, create annoyance, and undermine her loyalty. John Brown is a good candidate to purchase all brands. His behavior is always reinforced to retain his loyalty. Pat Johnson prefers Saturday Gold Lotto, but Golden Casket should try to cross-sell her on Wednesday Gold Lotto at every opportunity.

Such an exit strategy would substantiate what many great traders have said: An experienced trader, skilled in money management, can make a profit even with a bad system, while a novice trader, unskilled in money management, can lose everything trading a great system (sysrem, in this context, usually referring to an entry model) In all the remaining tests in this book, the MSES will replace the original, unmodified exit strategy (SES) WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED A good exit strategy is extremely important It can even pull profits from randomly entered trades! Think of what it could do for trades entered on the basis of something better than the toss of the die Even simple modifications can make a big difference, as evidenced by the results above where slight changes proved effective .

When combined with the suboptimal SES, many of the entry strategies tested in the previous section of this book can be seen to perform no better than the random one Some even did worse! Of course, a few performed dramatically better than did the random entry model..

The entire loyalty program was restructured and relaunched around the cross-sell model. When players purchased an entry, each receipt gave them a chance to win a free surprise game instantly at the point of purchase. Which free game they could win was determined using the crosssell model (e.g., Jane Smith would win a free Saturday Gold Lotto game, whereas Pat Johnson would win a Wednesday Gold Lotto game). The terminals at the 1150 retailers were linked to the central Golden Casket database. When any of the 710,000 active Winners Circle players purchased an entry, a personal message was printed at the top of the lottery receipt. If the cross-selling model indicated that the player was likely to play Powerball, the message would promote Powerball. The personal message was also used to alert ag players to outstanding prizes. Before this system, Golden Casket had mailed more than 10,000 checks a week, at a cost of $520,000 per year for the mailing alone. With the new system, special messages printed on the receipts alerted winners to their prizes, which could be claimed at the retail agent. A screen message on the agent s terminal also used the cross-sell model on each customer, prompting the agent to either cross-sell the appropriate game or reinforce the customers Winners Circle buying habit. If the player was to be cross-sold Powerball, the agent would be prompted to mention the Powerball jackpot for that week. The cross-selling recommendation was put on the call center screens as well. When a player called, a screen would prompt the call center operator as to what game to suggest. The model was also used to develop direct-mail cross-selling offers. One example was a letter and promotional premarked certi cate that was mailed to 50,000 players