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(respectively) across all markets for the various performance figures. In-sample, the British Pound, the Japanese Yen, Feeder Cattle, Live Hogs, and Lumber were the only markets that bad positive returns. Only the Deutschemark had a strong return on account at 25.9% annualized. Out-of-sam ple, the NYFE, the Japanese Yen, Light Crude, COMEX Gold, Palladium, Live Hogs, Soybeans, Soybean Meal, Coffee, and Orange Juice had positive returns. Only the Japanese Yen and Live Hogs were profitable in both samples. The random entry system was among the least consistent systems of those examined in the study of entries. The average trade, across all markets, lost $1,731 in-sample and $1,734 outof-sample. Long trades lost less than shorts, a finding observed many times. Insample, all the currencies, except the Canadian Dollar and Eurodollars, were profitable on the long side. These are trendy markets, and therefore, such profitability is likely due to the behavior of the standard exit, not to chance factors involved in the random entries. The analysis of the standard exit with random entries taken using various entry orders should serve well as a baseline of comparison for both the real, nonrandom entries (studied in earlier chapters) and the more sophisticated exits (to be studied in subsequent chapters).

Total sales Hoses Fasteners Valves Pipe Wire Switches Connectors Total $ 6,001,000 $ 778,001 $ 1,002,000 $ 9,001,000 $ 339,000 $ 603,000 $ 46,001 $17,770,002 Total buyers 220 198 18 144 201 22 32 415 Average per buyer $27,277 $ 3,929 $55,667 $62,507 $ 1,687 $27,409 $ 1,438 $42,819

The next test involves changing the SES a bit, thus producing the modifkd standard exit strategy (MSES). The SES is made more realistic by allowing the money management stop and profit target limit to function inside the bar, not merely at the close. To avoid ambiguities in the simulation when using end-of-day data, all entries are now restricted to the open. This allows complete freedom to explore a wide range of exit strategies. Other than lifting the restriction to the close, the MSES is identical to the original SES used when testing entries. The rules for the MSES are as follows: Upon entry, set up an exit stop below (long positions) or above (short positions) the entry price and an exit limit above (long) or below (short) the entry price. Place the exit stop some multiple (the money management stop parameter) of the average true range away from the entry price. Place the exit limit some other multiple (the profit target parameter) of the average true range away from the entry price. Exit on the close after 10 days have elapsed if neither the money management stop nor the profit target limit has yet closed out the trade. A 50.bar average true range is used in these rules. The code below implements random entries at the open together with the modified standard exit strategy.

Total average annual sales Hoses SIC group average This company Next best product $38,002 $22,001 Valves $60,003 $78,003 Pipe $42,001 $ 1,001 $42,001 Switches $2,002 $8,990 Total $142,008 $109,995

The code used to run the current test is identical to the code used for the earlier test, except for changes required by the modified exit strategy A trade is entered on a random signal that is generated as discussed earlier However, buying and selling occur only on the open In addition, information is recorded about entry activity, ie, whether an entry (long, short, or none) was posted on the current bar (entryposted), the price (entryprice) at which the entry took place (if one was posted), and the bar on which it took place (entrybar) This data is required in computing the exits The exits are then generated If an entry is posted for the next bar (ie, if the market is entered long or short at the open of the next bar), a profit target and a stop loss are also posted for that bar.

What Table 9-4 says to the sales force is that the next best product to sell to XYZ company is pipe and that the annual sales could amount to $42,000 per year, based on the purchases made by other similar companies. These numbers can be produced for every company and given to the sales force. Each salesperson can be measured not only on total sales but on the ability to increase sales in these conquest categories.

For the longs, the stop loss, or money management stop, is set at the entry price minus a parameter that is multiphed by the average true range The limit price for the profit target is set as the entry price plus another parameter that is multiplied by the average true range If, on the current bar, a short entry is posted for the next open, then orders are also posted to exit the resulting short position on a limit or a stop The limit and stop are calculated in a manner similar to that for the longs, except the directions are flipped around If a given bar is not an entry bar, a check is made to determine whether there is an existing position after the close of the bar.