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catalog containing things that the sender assumes he would be interested in, and Helena Hughes getting a catalog from the same company with a different selection of products. Several catalogers have tried this. It is technically possible. However, the increase in sales was disappointing. Personalization of catalogs is expensive, and so few catalogers do it because the increased sales from personalization are not suf cient to cover the cost of personalization. Catalogers print 500,000 or more identical copies, trying to get the per-piece cost as low as possible. They mail these catalogs to their house le plus hundreds of thousands of rented names. This method keeps the marketing costs to a minimum.

14. Do you eat tomatoes or tomato products less than two times a week 15. Do you eat whole-grain foods less than once a day 16. Do you eat white bread or other non-whole-grain foods such as pasta, crackers, donuts, etc., more than once a day 17. Do you use or eat, on a daily basis, multiple foods containing sugars and processed carbohydrates such as snacks and desserts 18. Do you eat fried or charcoaled foods often (once a day) 19. Do you eat well-done meats often 20. Do you drink less than two glasses of water a day 21. Are you exposed to sunlight without some protection for more than one hour daily on a regular basis 22. Have you had more than three sunburns in your lifetime 23. Do you have high blood pressure 24. Do you have high cholesterol 25. Do you have high blood sugar 26. Do you visit a doctor because of some illness more than once a year 27. Do you exercise for less than thirty minutes a day three times a week 28. Are you often under stress 29. Do you have a job that involves very little physical activity 30. Do you take nutritional supplements infrequently

Statistical calculations can even be adjusted for a known degree of curve-fitting, thereby providing estimates of whether a chance pattern, present in the data sample being used to develop the system, has been curve-fitted or whether a pattern present in the population (and hence one that would probably be present in future samples drawn from the market being examined) has been modeled It should be noted that statistics generally make certain theoretical assumptions about the data samples and populations to which they may be appropriately applied These assumptions are often violated when dealing with trading models Some violations have little practical effect and may be ignored, while others may be worked around By using additional statistics, the more serious violations can sometimes be.

There is a form of personalization for catalogers, however. Most catalogers produce 10 to 15 different books per year. One cataloger, for instance, may produce some books featuring dress clothes, some with sports clothes, and some with children s clothes. If a customer buys children s clothes, she will get the children s clothes catalogs. This sounds like personalization. But herein lies a problem: The catalog s house le of previous buyers is often very small relative to the rented list of external names. Previous buyers are always the best responders. Why leave a previous buyer out of the sports clothing catalog mailing just because all she has bought before was children s clothes It does not make economic sense. So previous buyers will get all the catalogs. Where does database marketing gure in that If you cannot personalize your communications, you cannot really do database marketing, so few catalogers spend any money on database marketing. That is, they didn t until the advent of the Web.

detected, avoided, or compensated for; at the very least, they can be understood. In short, we are fully aware of these violations and will discuss our acts of hubris and their ramifications after a foundation for understanding the issues has been laid.

My wife, Helena, buys all the clothes and gifts in our family. She is a catalog freak. She recently spent $35,000 on catalog items in 1 year. She does extensive research in the catalogs to nd exactly what she

Fundamental to statistics and, therefore, important to understand, is the act of sampling, which is the extraction of a number of data points or trades (a sample) from a larger, abstractly defined set of data points or trades (a population) The central idea behind statistical analysis is the use of samples to make inferences about the populations from which they are drawn When dealing with trading models, the populations will most often be defined as all raw data (past, present, and future) for a given tradable (eg, all 5-minute bars on all futures on the S&P 500), all trades (past, present, and future) taken by a specified system on a given tradable, or all yearly, monthly, or even daily returns All quarterly earnings (past, present, and future) of IBM is another example of a population.