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These are my top choices in the citrus fruit family because of the many beneficial vitamins, minerals, D-glucarate, and flavonoids they contain. Oranges also contain many important terpenoids. I like to combine grapefruit and orange juice into one drink to get a better taste and the full benefit of these nutritious fruits. Nutrients and phytochemicals work not only individually to improve detoxification, but also synergistically. The flavonoids in grapefruit and oranges keep vitamin C in a state necessary for it to function as a powerful antioxidant. In addition, D-glucarate and flavonoids work in tandem to bring about effective xenobiotic Phase I and Phase II detoxification.

Now that some of the basics are out of the way, let us look at how statistics are used when developing and evaluating a trading system. The examples below employ a system that was optimized on one sample of data (the m-sample data) and then run (tested) on another sample of data (the out-of-sample data). The outof-sample evaluation of this system will be discussed before the in-sample one because the statistical analysis was simpler for the former (which is equivalent to the evaluation of an unoptimized trading system) in that no corrections for multiple tests or optimization were required. The system is a lunar model that trades the S&P 500; it was published in an article we wrote (see Katz with McCormick, June 1997). The TradeStation code for this system is shown below:

who didn t. Conversion rates among those who used the personal shopper were 80 percent higher than the average for other customers. Other catalogers have also developed innovative methods to bring customers to their site. Use of af liates. Ashford.com, a jeweler, promotes its site through 12,000 af liates who are linked to Ashford in return for a 7 percent share of the net revenue. This program brings in 15 percent of Ashford s sales. Ashford also uses Web advertising and Web newsletters to previous customers. Web newsletters from catalogers may seem like a bonanza because they are so inexpensive to send. However, they are also annoying. Forrester Research found that more than half of consumers say they receive too many commercial emails. Most long-term Net users delete all promotional emails without reading them. However, the value of a Web newsletter can be easily determined by creating a control group and determining whether the total sales, number of sales, average order size, departments shopped, and so on are greater for those getting the newsletter than they are for the control group. If there is no difference, drop the newsletter like a hot potato.

Evaluating an optimized system on a set of out-of-sample data that was never used during the optimization process is identical to evaluating an unoptimized system In both cases, one test is run without adjusting any parameters Table 4-1 illustrates the use of statistics to evaluate an unoptimized system: It contains the outof-sample or verification results together with a variety of statistics Remember, in this test, a fresh set of data was used; this data was not used as the basis for adjustments in the system s parameters The parameters of the trading model have already been set A sample of data was drawn from a period in the past, in this specific case, l/1/95 through l/1/97; this is the out-of-sample or verification data The model was then run on this outof-sample data, and it generated simulated trades Forty-seven trades were taken.

Many catalogers have ful llment systems that use a legacy system that is not compatible with the modern servers that are used today for the

This set of trades can itself be considered a sample of trades, one drawn from the population of all trades that the system took in the past or will take in the future; ie, it is a sample of trades taken from the universe or population of all trades for that system At this point, some inference must be made regarding the average profit per trade in the population as a whole, based on the sample of trades Could the performance obtained in the sample be due to chance alone To find the answer, the system must be statistically evaluated To begin statistically evaluating this system, the sample mean (average) for n (the number of trades or sample size) must first be calculated The mean is simply the sum of the profit/loss figures for the trades generated divided by n (in this case, 47).